An Overview Of Our Solution
Sea level in Virginia is rising faster than anywhere else on the Atlantic Coast. Increased flooding, both from storms and from high tide events, is becoming a serious concern as flood losses increase. Without appropriate adaptation efforts, sea level rise is expected to inflict high economic costs in the coastal region. Over the past 3 years, we have engaged in a multi-pronged collaborative initiative to lay the necessary groundwork for the creation of a flexible adaptation plan for Virginia. This plan would improve the resilience of the Virginia coastline to future flooding; helping to protect the historic and economic resources. We believe that this approach is highly exportable to other regions.
- Population Impacted: 5,153,402 (pop of Tidewater Virginia)
- Continent: North America
Address
1375 Greate Rd
Gloucester Point, VA 23062
United States
Hazard
Identify the likelihood and frequency of this hazard
Explain how vulnerable the community is to this hazard
List the potential affects of this hazard
Identify how sensitive the community is to these affects
Preparedness Goal
Implementation Actions
We have been engaged in a number of activities to promote resilience to flooding in the face of sea level rise, primarily aimed at creating a flexible adaptation pathway for Virginia. Activities include:
Evaluating Sea Level Rise Projections – Using a two-prong approach, we adjusted regional projections from the National Climate Assessment for specific rates of subsidence and unique ocean circulation patterns which affect sea level rise in Virginia and used historic tide gauge data to compare past trends to the project future trends within a 30-year planning horizon.
Modeling Inundation & Identifying Vulnerable Communities – We used high resolution Lidar data to map sea level rise projections. This information, along with other indicators of physical risk (highly developed areas, lack of natural resources, storm history) has allowed us to map relative vulnerability on a census tract level. In conjunction with the Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic (VCPC, Law School, the College of William & Mary), we have examined the distribution of social vulnerability metrics to determine areas where high physical vulnerability overlaps with vulnerable communities.
Addressing Legal Barriers to Adaptation – Meetings with stakeholders indicated that localities did not feel empowered to enact management/policy type actions. They saw these actions (such as changes in zoning) as potentially reducing property values and leading to legal actions. The VCPC partnered with us to first identify the areas of concern and then to address the legal and policy issues through a series of white papers and presentations.
Information Dissemination – Maps of vulnerabilities and risk are being developed for each locality and are available on a web portal. White papers on legal issues are available on the VCPC website. In addition, annual conferences are held at the College of William & Mary to educate decision makers on relevant information.
Describe Your Solution
Throughout the world, many countries are dealing with increased flooding due to sea level rise. Planning efforts are complicated by uncertainties in sea level rise projections. Flexible adaptation planning is a method employed to account for some of the uncertainty; however it requires several things to be successful: a concise understanding of the problems now and in the future, removal of obstacles to adaptation and a coordinated approach throughout the areas at risk. In our solution, we have harnessed the power of academic institutions and institutional partnerships as a low-cost approach to lay the groundwork for successful flexible adaptation planning.
Extensive modeling and mapping of sea level rise, storm surge and physical risk has allowed us to compare risk under different sea level rise scenarios, target areas of highest risk and identify whether the risk is primarily to economically valuable areas, socially vulnerable areas or some combination. In addition, we are creating a monitoring system which will allow for continued reassessment of risk in the future as sea level projections and social structure changes.
Addressing legal and policy barriers to adaptation allows the state and localities to take a proactive approach to passing necessary legislation to accommodate resiliency efforts. By identifying which legal issues are relevant to sea level rise efforts and which ones are not, we have empowered localities to use available planning tools. We have also helped foster a community of adaptation throughout coastal Virginia, by providing publically available data and a venue in which to network adaption efforts.
Economic?
Economic benefits from our work include an expected reduction in future flood losses, including loss of life and property, economic losses from business closures or delays and economic losses from reduced tourism. These reductions in losses can be realized through good planning efforts based on the best available data.
Environmental?
Our adaptation work places a high premium on nature-based solutions which can reduce flood and storm surge impacts while providing environmental services. Our portal gives localities specific parcel-level advice on shoreline management to preserve future values. Our work is also being used to locate interior lands which will be future coastlines for preservation and “prestoration” (the alteration of a habitat to maximize its future ecological value).
What were the negative or unintended impacts (if any) associated with implementing this solution?
We do not know of any negative or unintended consequences associated with this solution.
Return on Investment: How much did it cost to implement these activities? How do your results above compare to this investment?
The overall cost of this project has been under $200,000 over a 3 year time period. We have harnessed local and state partnerships, academic and institutional knowledge and the efforts of students in a clinic environment to build capacity at very low cost. Implementing a flexible management plan has the potential to save federal monies (in reduced flood insurance payouts), state monies (by targeting adaptation actions) and business and individual losses. Overall, we believe the economic benefits of our work will greatly exceed the costs in a short time frame, and continue to provide economic benefits into the future.
What are the main factors needed to successfully replicate this solution
The success of this project hinged mostly on successful collaborations and the personal motivation of the collaborators. Using an academic framework for this solution allowed us to diversify efforts, incorporating more personnel than might be typically involved. Using experts in a number of different areas (modeling, law, policy, local planning, etc) reduced time that might have been required by a smaller organization to educate themselves in all subject areas. Our work has also been extended through state and local collaborators, who are frequently working without any direct funding for this issue.
Replicating this solution elsewhere will primarily require a community of committed and engaged stakeholders with access to experts in a variety of subject areas directly related to the planning area (e.g. experts in local policy implementation or knowledge of local environmental challenges).